Labor Force Participation Rate Increased by 0.2 Percentage Points in October

     According to preliminary seasonally adjusted figures released today by the New York State Department of Labor, the number of private sector jobs in New York State increased over the month by 3,700 to 8,063,300 in October 2022. The number of private sector jobs in the U.S. increased by 0.2% in October 2022.

    New York State's private sector jobs (not seasonally adjusted) increased by 306,400, or 3.9%, over the year in October 2022, which exceeded the 3.8% increase in the number of private sector jobs in the U.S.

    New York State's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased from 4.3% in September to 4.4% in October 2022. At the same time, New York State's labor force (seasonally adjusted) increased by 15,000. As a result, the labor force participation rate went up from 60.3% in September to 60.5% in October 2022, matching its highest rate since March 2020.

    The number of private sector jobs in New York State is based on a payroll survey of New York businesses conducted by the U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Monthly payroll employment estimates are preliminary and subject to revision as more complete data become available the following month. The BLS calculates New York State’s unemployment rate based partly upon the results of the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS) of approximately 3,100 households in the State.

Note: Seasonally adjusted data are used to provide the most valid month-to-month comparison. Non-seasonally adjusted data are valuable in year-to-year comparisons of the same month – for example, October 2021 versus October 2022.

Statewide Industry Employment

October 2022 – Seasonally Adjusted

• On a net basis, the total number of nonfarm jobs in the state increased by 16,400 over the month, while private sector jobs rose by 3,700, in October 2022.

• At the same time, the total number of nonfarm jobs in the nation increased by 261,000, while private sector jobs increased by 233,000.

NYS Nonfarm Job Growth Matches the Nation's

Over-the-Month % Change in Total Nonfarm & Private Sector Jobs, September – October 2022  

Total Nonfarm and Private Sector Jobs Increased in October 2022

Total Nonfarm and Private Sector Jobs (in 1000s), January 1990 – October 2022

Statewide Unemployment

October 2022 – Seasonally Adjusted

• In October 2022, the statewide unemployment rate increased from 4.3% to 4.4%.
• New York City’s unemployment rate increased from 5.6% to 5.9%. Outside of New York City, the unemployment rate held steady at 3.3%.

• The number of unemployed New Yorkers increased over the month by 10,400, from 404,600 in September to 415,000 in October 2022.

NYS Unemployment increased in October 2022

Labor Force Statistics,  September 2021, September - October 2022

The Labor Force and Number of Unemployed Increased in October

Total Labor Force & Number of Unemployed, January 2009 - October 2022

NYS and US Unemployment Rates Increased

Unemployment Rate, NYS & US, January 2009 - October 2022

Unemployment Rate Increased in NYC, Held Steady in Balance of State

Unemployment Rate, NYC & BOS, January 2009 - October 2022

Substate and Industry Employment 

October 2022 – Not Seasonally Adjusted

New York State Exceeded Nation in Job Growth

Over-the-Year Change in Total Nonfarm & Private Sector Jobs, October 2021 – October 2022

Note: The sum of sub-state area job estimates will usually differ from the New York State total. This is because the State total is calculated separately from the sub-state areas and is estimated based on an independent sample.

The Number of Leisure & Hospitality Jobs Increased by 9.0% Over the Year

Over-the-Year Change in Jobs by Major Industry Sector, October 2021 – October 2022

*Educational and health services are in the private sector. Government includes public education and public health services.

Note: The responsibility for the production of monthly estimates of state and metro area nonfarm employment by industry moved from the NYS Department of Labor’s Division of Research and Statistics to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), starting with the March 2011 estimates. More detailed information on the change is available on the BLS web site.

Many economic data series have a seasonal pattern, which means they tend to occur at the same time each year (e.g., retail jobs usually increase in December). Seasonal adjustment is the process of removing seasonal effects from a data series. This is done to simplify the data so that they may be more easily interpreted and help to reveal true underlying trends. Seasonal adjustment permits comparisons of data from one month to data from any other month.

In New York State, payroll jobs data by industry come from a monthly survey of 18,000 business establishments conducted by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Data are preliminary and subject to revision. Jobs data by industry do not include agricultural workers, the self-employed, unpaid family workers or domestic workers in private households.

Labor force statistics, including the unemployment rate, for New York and every other state are based on statistical regression models specified by the U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The state’s unemployment rate is based partly upon the results of the Current Population Survey, which contacts approximately 3,100 households in New York each month.

 Jobs and Unemployment Fact Sheet

This fact sheet conveys important technical information that will contribute to a better understanding of labor force data (“household survey”), including resident employment/unemployment rates, and jobs by industry data (“business survey”), which are presented in the New York State Department of Labor’s monthly press release.

State Unemployment Rates Based on Regression Model

Beginning with data for January 1996, unemployment rates for New York State and all other states (as well as New York City and the City of Los Angeles) have been estimated using time-series regression statistical models developed by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Advantage of Regression Model

Use of a time-series regression model reduces the month-to-month variation in unemployment rates and resident employment by reducing variation caused by sampling errors and other components of statistical noise (irregularities).

Benchmarking of Estimates

Once each year, labor force estimates, such as civilian labor force and the unemployment rate, are revised to reflect updated input data including new Census Bureau populations controls, newly revised establishment jobs data and new state-level annual average data from the Current Population Survey (CPS). As part of this procedure, all state figures are reviewed, revised as necessary and then re-estimated. This process is commonly referred to as “benchmarking.”

Changes in Methodology

Labor force estimates are now produced with an improved time-series regression model, which utilizes “real-time” benchmarking. “Real-time” benchmarking reduces end-of-year revisions, which also means that major economic events will be reflected in a more timely manner in state labor force estimates.

In addition, the new methodology includes an updated way of estimating for sub-state areas (e.g. counties, metro areas) the number of unemployed who are new entrants or re-entrants into the labor force. This change in methodology will result in lower unemployment rates in some areas and increased rates in others.

Unemployed and UI Beneficiaries

The estimate of the number of unemployed includes all persons who had no employment during the reference week (the week including the 12th of the month), were available for work, except for temporary illness, and had made specific efforts to find employment sometime during the 4-week period ending with the reference week. Unemployment insurance (UI) beneficiaries include those who apply for and qualify for UI benefits. Consequently, the estimate of the number of unemployed and the number of UI beneficiaries do not necessarily move in tandem.

Jobs Data

Jobs data are obtained from a separate joint federal-state survey of business establishments. The survey, called the Current Employment Statistics of Establishments, has a sample size of 18,000 establishments in New York State. It excludes self-employed workers, agricultural workers, unpaid family workers and domestic workers employed by private households. This data represents a count of jobs by place of work. Data for each month is revised the following month as more complete information becomes available.

The New York State Department of Labor is an Equal Opportunity Employer/Program.

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